HOW UKRAINE IS DEEPENING COOPERATION WITH THE GULF COUNTRIES

Ukraine and the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf are unlikely partners. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, and Kuwait have traditionally based their foreign policy on balancing security partnerships with Western states, economic ties with Asia, and managing the global oil market together with Russia within the OPEC+ framework.

Iran's strikes against Gulf countries have upended each of these dynamics and placed Ukraine in a central position among them. Ukraine can provide protection against Shahed drones better than any Western country, and in doing so protect the Gulf economies which are direct targets of Iran's military strategy. It is worth noting that Ukraine itself has a strong interest in unblocking the Strait of Hormuz as quickly as possible, given the enormous economic losses this causes Ukraine and the benefits it provides to Russia.

Ukraine's sudden importance in the region opens up a range of opportunities in exchange for technology and expertise. Recently, Ukraine signed defense agreements with Saudi Arabia and Qatar that could form the basis for deeper relations in the future, and announced a similar arrangement with the UAE. Requests from Bahrain and Oman are being processed, and negotiations with Kuwait are ongoing.

The full texts of the agreements have not been made public, but their content covers technological cooperation, the creation of joint production facilities, and investment commitments. This indicates a systemic engagement rather than simply sales of interceptor drones. For Ukraine, an important outcome will likely be attracting investment, which could ease the financial burden on Europe.

However, Kyiv's attempts to purchase or exchange interceptor drones for critically important military equipment – such as PATRIOT PAC-3 interceptor missiles or second-hand Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets from Qatar – have so far been unsuccessful. This suggests that the Gulf states are setting limits on the support they are willing to provide to Ukraine, even though Ukraine offers the only effective solution to their vulnerability to Shahed drones.

Kyiv should therefore approach the sale of technology cautiously when the other party is unwilling to reciprocate, and avoid the trap of rushing into high-profile deals for the sake of global attention at the cost of weakening its own war effort. Given the confidential nature of many of these negotiations, it is currently difficult to assess how effectively the agreements reached are serving this goal.

Beyond the defense sphere, the most tangible outcome for Ukraine so far has been securing a year's supply of diesel fuel from an unnamed Gulf country. Given the damage to Ukrainian oil refineries, the halt in diesel exports from Hungary and Slovakia, and the global rise in oil prices caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, this significantly reduces one of Ukraine's key vulnerabilities. In the future, this cooperation could extend to rebuilding Ukraine's energy infrastructure and supporting its transition to renewable energy.

The sovereign wealth funds of the Gulf states control nearly half of all global investments in ‘green’ assets made by such funds, as diversifying their economies ahead of the shift away from hydrocarbons is a necessity. For Ukraine, Gulf investment in green energy would be an ideal opportunity to increase self-sufficiency and reduce vulnerability to energy blackmail from countries such as Russia, Hungary, and Slovakia – at a time when the sector already needs to be rebuilt.

In line with the Gulf states' policy of strategic neutrality and multi-alignment, changing their relations with Russia is a far more complex task than deepening ties with Ukraine. A deep history of engagement with Russia, rooted primarily in energy cooperation, means that these cautious states will not sever such ties lightly.

None of the Gulf countries have imposed direct sanctions against Russia, and the UAE's enforcement of Western sanctions is particularly weak. For example, UAE trade with Russia grew by 68% in 2022, and Emirati companies are key re-exporters of Russian oil. Even the United States, the region's most important strategic partner, was unable to pressure the Gulf states into strengthening sanctions enforcement or increasing oil production to damage Russia's economy.

Nevertheless, the very fact that Ukraine is developing relations with the Gulf states is already changing Ukraine's global reputation. Kyiv is gradually coming to be seen as an exporter of security rather than merely an importer of it, and this ‘product’ is directly tied to global stability through the protection of energy supplies. Support from the Middle East is reshaping the coalition backing Ukraine, transforming it from one that is predominantly Western (and increasingly European) into one with genuine global significance.

At present, much of the Global South associates this war with its own grievances toward the West over colonialism, and questions its consistency on matters of international law without always directly accounting for Ukraine's own position. Broadening the coalition of Ukraine's supporters could challenge such perceptions and potentially bring unforeseen long-term benefits.

Billi-Villi is an analytical media outlet that explains the mechanics of decision-making, the motivations of politicians, hidden interests, and the consequences that are already shaping the situation in the world and in Ukraine today.