ITALY'S 'NATIONAL FUTURE' WITH A MOSCOW PAST
Earlier this year, Italy was shaken by the emergence of a new far-right party, Futuro Nazionale, a political force born out of a split within the ruling Lega. In the more than six months since its founding, Futuro Nazionale has rapidly climbed the opinion polls. Given Italy's important positioning within the European Union and its role in supporting Ukraine, the phenomenon of this newly created party deserves attention.
Roberto Vannacci and the founding of the party
Futuro Nazionale is inseparable from the figure of Roberto Vannacci, a career soldier holding the rank of divisional general. Over the course of his career he commanded airborne units in Italy and on missions across Africa and Asia, including in Iraq and Afghanistan. More interesting, however, is his diplomatic career. From February 2021 to May 2022, Vannacci served as military attaché at the Italian Embassy in Moscow. During his time in Russia he took part in various events of a military-historical character organised by the Russians, including the presentation of an Italian decoration to a Russian Second World War veteran and a visit to a military museum in Suzdal.
Vannacci's presence in Moscow coincided with the preparation for and the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion. The head of the diplomatic mission, Giorgio Starace, mentions in his book about life at the Italian Embassy in Moscow at the time that the military attaché assured him there were no preconditions for a large-scale armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine. After the invasion began, Vannacci expressed confidence that Russia would receive Ukraine's surrender within a few weeks. In May, by decision of the Kremlin, General Vannacci was expelled from Russia along with most of the Italian Embassy's staff. He subsequently became an active public voice against support for Ukraine, minimising Russia's responsibility for the invasion and the large number of Ukrainian civilian casualties.
Vannacci's pro-Russian views clearly took root during his time in Moscow. In 2023 he published a book, The World Upside Down, in which, among other things, he expressed his admiration for Russia in the manner typical of the European far right. According to Vannacci, Moscow is an 'ultra-safe' city with a high standard of living and strict order. Illegal migrants, in his view, do not exist in Russia, while those who arrive to work under contract receive a clear legal status and housing. Migrants in Russia, he argues, respect local culture and traditions, and face severe punishment in the event of any offence.
Vannacci achieved widespread popularity in Italian society precisely through the publication of this book, which contained sharp criticism of the progressive agenda, migration, and political correctness. On LGBT issues, he takes the view that homosexuals are 'not normal' and complains that the protection of sexual minority rights and Pride events have gone too far. He defends national and ethnic identity and expresses hostility to large-scale immigration, citing Italian athlete of African origin Paola Egonu as an example and implying that her appearance does not reflect 'Italianness.' Vannacci also expresses contempt for what he calls fashionable progressive ideas such as 'aggressive climate activism', gender theory, and feminism in its contemporary forms, viewing them as topics detached from everyday life. He reserves particular criticism for 'political correctness,' which in his view suppresses freedom of speech, rewrites history, and destroys patriotism.
The publication of the book caused a major public controversy and triggered a disciplinary investigation by the Ministry of Defence, which resulted in Vannacci being removed from command of the Military Geographic Institute in Florence and subsequently suspended from service for eleven months. This decision provoked a backlash in the conservative segment of society, turning Vannacci into a symbol of resistance to the liberal mainstream and the Italian establishment.
Although the book effectively served as Vannacci's political manifesto, he decided to launch his political career the following year, 2024, in the European Parliament elections. His candidacy was backed by Matteo Salvini's Lega, on whose list he stood. The result was remarkable: Vannacci received more than half a million votes across Italy, making him the second most supported candidate of all those standing, behind only incumbent Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni who received around 2.5 million votes. Vannacci's votes accounted for a quarter of Lega's total. His participation helped to soften the collapse in support that Lega recorded in the 2024 elections, as the party lost 21 of its 29 MEPs and fell from 34.3% to 9% of the total vote compared to the previous cycle.
Fully aware of Lega's difficulties, Salvini decided to bring Vannacci into party membership. This happened in April of the following year, 2025, and within a month the general had been appointed Lega's deputy secretary. Alongside his role within Lega, however, Vannacci was developing his own political project in parallel. In late 2024, the Il Mondo al Contrario movement, named after his book and effectively led by him, was recast as a political one. At the time, Vannacci was still denying plans to create his own party, though he hinted that he might be ready to take such a step in the future. By early 2025, the movement underwent structural changes aimed at creating decentralised local cells known as 'teams,' or 'Vannacci's teams' as they became known in the media. The shift towards a horizontal structure made the movement more flexible and gave it a grassroots organisation of supporters, which is a necessary condition for the success of any political force.
In retrospect, the movement's trajectory appears fairly logical and consistent. This was the first step on the road to launching his own party. The alliance with Salvini proved tactical as the leadership role in Lega gave Vannacci the political experience he himself acknowledged as necessary for building his political project. Not all of his movement's associates welcomed this step when the general joined Lega, though some members of regional Lega organisations did begin joining the 'Vannacci teams.’ The movement's rules permitted party members to join the teams and this happened in the region of Marche, for example.
While the recruitment of Lega's grassroots members into his movement proceeded relatively effectively, Vannacci came under a barrage of criticism at the highest party level for effectively participating in two political projects simultaneously. Following a party meeting at which he was accused of building an autonomous political network, Vannacci was forced to publicly justify his 'teams,' insisting that their activities had no political dimension and that the movement was purely a cultural phenomenon despite the fact that Il Mondo al Contrario is designated in its own statutes as a political-cultural association. Moreover, at the movement's first national gathering in June 2025, facilitating the nomination of prominent movement figures in regional elections was identified as one of its key objectives.
The split built for several months, with both sides moving towards it from different directions. Despite being frequently described in the media as 'far right' and belonging to the Orbanite 'Patriots for Europe' group in the European Parliament, Lega is historically a regionalist party of northern Italy. Vannacci's rhetoric, although similar to that of other Lega figures, does not fully align with the party's positions. Moreover, from an ideological standpoint, his commitment to the centralisation of state power directly contradicts Lega's foundational principles. The party had itself been grappling with a crisis of popularity in recent years, reflected in falling ratings. While betting on Vannacci had paid off in the European elections, Lega gave the general a free hand as deputy secretary in the 2025 regional elections in Tuscany and collapsed. Compared with the previous cycle in 2020, it suffered catastrophic losses, falling from 21.78% to 4.4%. Notably, before this, a conflict had broken out between Vannacci and Lombardy governor Attilio Fontana, an influential Lega figure, over who should be leading the party to a successful result in Tuscany. The poor showing therefore sharpened criticism of the general from other Lega veterans, particularly from the northern regions that form the party's traditional heartland. Beyond this, Salvini and Vannacci simply could not coexist for long as two equally charismatic leaders. Keeping a popular politician as his second-in-command suited Salvini, but a bigger role for Vannacci was never on offer and the general could not be expected to accept this.
The break itself came swiftly. In late January 2026, Vannacci registered the trademark 'Futuro Nazionale, Vannacci' which Lega interpreted as an anomaly incompatible with continued party membership. After a meeting with Salvini, who according to Italian media delivered the general an ultimatum, Vannacci announced on 3 February that he was 'continuing on his own path.' He lost the deputy secretary position, was expelled from the Patriots for Europe group, but refused to relinquish his MEP mandate despite calls from his former colleagues to do so. Tellingly, the first target of the new political force was support for Ukraine. Within days of his departure, Vannacci backed an amendment tabled by deputies close to him demanding an immediate halt to arms deliveries to Kyiv. This was a blow to Lega's most sensitive point, given that the party had spent years suppressing its internal divisions by voting for Ukraine aid packages. The final act came on 24 February when Vannacci joined the European Parliament's most radical group, 'Europe of Sovereign Nations', built around Alternative for Germany. He explained the move by citing disagreements over the Russo-Ukrainian war.
The political platform
The party's name Futuro Nazionale, or 'National Future' in Italian, reflects an attempt to build a symbolic connection with the Futurist movement which was popular in Italy in the early twentieth century. The party's own members ask to be called 'Futurists.' At the level of ideas, however, there is little genuine affinity with the thought of Filippo Tommaso Marinetti and other Futurists of the past. This is unsurprising, since the original Futurists proposed an extremely aggressive vision of the future which celebrated war and the virtues it was said to awaken in man, military expansion, the dismantling of existing political institutions, anticlericalism, and the destruction of museums and everything that was a reminder of the past. This was a genuinely revolutionary vision of Italy's development, akin to other ideas popular at the time: that progress and technological development must be embraced for the sake of a successful future, while the past must be decisively cast aside as a burden impeding forward movement. The only thing that partially connects the Futurists of the twentieth century with Vannacci's party is a desire for the centralisation of power in Italy. Futuro Nazionale, however, bases its political platform on socio-cultural questions: immigration, the 'woke' agenda, traditional Christian values, and support for families and the birth rate. From this perspective, the party looks less like a vision of the future and more like a reaction against contemporary social processes. It is a desire to go 'back.'
As the current ideologist of Futuro Nazionale, Lorenzo Gasperini, wrote some years ago: 'We must reject feminism, nihilism, and the revolution of 1968 and restore patriarchy' - a thesis with which Marinetti would hardly have agreed. Appeals to the past do not stop there. To justify his proposed cap of 4% of the total population as the maximum number of immigrants in Italy, Vannacci invoked the Germanic Lombard tribe which invaded northern Italy and later pushed into the Apennine Peninsula to establish a kingdom there in the second half of the sixth century. According to the general, these Germanic peoples were the most numerous group ever to have migrated to Italy and their share of the population of the time was supposedly 4% (a claim that is obviously highly contested). Vannacci draws the conclusion that 'we need it to be like it was in the time of the Lombards, with immigrants making up only 4%.'
In the period between the launch of Futuro Nazionale in February and its founding congress in June, the party developed an ideological platform. Unsurprisingly, its foundation was the ideas Vannacci had expressed in The World Upside Down, now packaged in an appealing format using the acronym VITALE (meaning 'vital' in Italian). The first element of the doctrine, the concept of virtue (Virtù), defines character as the first principle of political activity, with discipline, courage, and duty to the nation as its key categories. The understanding of freedom here is inseparable from responsibility, and rights are treated as existing only in conjunction with duties. The second element, identity (Identità), proclaims the defence of Italy's ethno-cultural core and its sovereign borders as a priority over any supranational institutions. Traditions (Tradizioni) are interpreted as civilisational roots, combining the heritage of Roman law, classical Greek philosophy, and Christian values. The next element, love (Amore), is articulated through the concept of national community and the unconditional protection of the natural family as the basic unit of the nation, without which the country is doomed to demographic decline. Real freedom (Libertà) is set against the bureaucratic pressure of the state and ideological censorship, and demands the guarantee of physical security and the right of parents to raise children free from liberal dogmatism. Excellence and enthusiasm (Eccellenza ed Entusiasmo) declare a cult of meritocracy, support for national production, and a complete rejection of the concept of 'social dependency' in favour of personal responsibility and work.
In reality, Vannacci offers nothing new. The same values are declared by Giorgia Meloni's Brothers of Italy and, to varying degrees, by the other parties of the ruling coalition Lega and Forza Italia. What Futuro Nazionale does genuinely exploit is the image of an outsider political force, a party of 'anti-establishment.' This phenomenon is far from new on the European political stage. However, unlike France, the United Kingdom, Spain, and to some extent Germany, the government in Italy is held by right-wing conservatives. This has in part produced a situation in which the opposition to the Italian government consists of left-wing or moderate parties, while there is no right-wing opposition of the kind found in other European countries. The vacuum this created was always going to be filled by someone sooner or later.
To a significant degree, Vannacci is playing on the sentiments of disenchanted voters on the Italian right. The ruling parties ran aggressive pre-election campaigns using rhetoric similar to Vannacci's, equally emphasising the need for a radical reduction in immigration, resistance to the 'woke' agenda, the defence of traditional values, and a pragmatic relationship with Brussels. After coming to power, however, Giorgia Meloni and her government began pursuing a more moderate course, particularly in foreign policy and Italy's positioning within the European Union. It is clear that part of the right-wing electorate was dissatisfied with the absence of firm action on both domestic and foreign policy. This in turn created fertile ground for the emergence of a so-called 'genuinely right-wing party' that would match its rhetoric with action. Indeed, one of Vannacci's main lines of criticism against Meloni is that the right she leads has not turned out to be truly right-wing in practice. At the same time, the leader of Futuro Nazionale is open to cooperation with other right-wing parties should the opportunity arise.
Consequences for Italian politics and support for Ukraine
The possibility of Futuro Nazionale joining a right-wing coalition in the future is real. Vannacci does not publicly rule out potential cooperation and describes himself as a 'natural partner of the centre-right.' The ruling political forces are currently cautious about this prospect. Earlier this year, Salvini said that Lega did not plan to bring Vannacci into the existing alliance of right-wing parties for a joint run in the parliamentary elections due in September 2027. He is now effectively issuing Vannacci an ultimatum: either the right or the left. In Salvini's case, returning to cooperation after their sharp falling-out will be difficult, though the Lega leader himself insists there are no personal grievances on his side. Giorgia Meloni is also not currently expressing any desire for any form of cooperation with Vannacci, while Forza Italia has flatly rejected the possibility of any alliance with the 'general of discord.'
Despite the position of Italy's right-wing leaders, a situation could arise in which an alliance with Futuro Nazionale is the only way to form a future government. Since its official launch in February, recent polls show Vannacci's party at around 8% which would hypothetically give Futuro Nazionale a so-called 'golden share' in the formation of the next right-wing governing coalition. The current ratings also mean that the ruling coalition without Vannacci falls short of 42%. The governing forces are actively pushing through an electoral reform that would allow a coalition of parties to form a majority in the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate if it clears the 42% threshold and wins a majority of votes. Without Vannacci, the ruling forces currently trail a potential coalition of left-wing parties and risk losing the chance to form government again. This places them in a dilemma: retain power by cooperating with Futuro Nazionale, or lose it to the left and liberals.
For now, the main consequence of Vannacci's party is a reshaping of the Italian right-wing political landscape. Futuro Nazionale is drawing voters away from the ruling parties, particularly Lega. Meloni is already reacting to this dynamic by calling Vannacci a 'leftist' in an attempt to portray him to right-wing voters as someone who does not genuinely represent right-wing ideology. For Lega, the situation looks most threatening: the party continues to fall in the polls while Futuro Nazionale gains. Salvini worked hard to build the image of a Eurosceptic, national-sovereign political force for his party that could attract voters from central and southern Italy. That niche is now being taken over by Vannacci, weakening Salvini's and Lega's position.
Vannacci's personality is simultaneously the strength and the weakness of his political project. Futuro Nazionale owes much of its growing support to the general's media presence and popularity. A genuinely successful party, however, requires an effective organisational system, professionalism, and a capable membership. For now, Futuro Nazionale remains, in essence, Vannacci's personal party. Even before the party's official launch, in January 2026, his political-cultural movement was shaken by a scandal in which several leaders of 'Vannacci's teams' quit the project, citing chaos and a lack of trust. Problems with turnout at party events also persist: despite claims of growing membership, the hall at the founding party congress in Rome in mid-June was only around three-quarters full, pointing to difficulties in mobilising supporters at scale. At this stage, Vannacci's party rating therefore reflects dissatisfaction with the governing parties more than genuine support for Futuro Nazionale.
For Ukraine, the emergence of Futuro Nazionale brings no positive consequences and adds yet another anti-Ukrainian political force to Italy's political map. The party currently has eight deputies in the lower house of parliament, three of whom earlier this year participated in efforts to obstruct government initiatives in support of Ukraine. As Futuro Nazionale's influence grows, anti-Ukrainian voices will become louder in Italian public discourse. Should the party enter the governing coalition, Italy's policy on supporting Ukraine could suffer a significant blow. Salvini's pro-Russian position has not led Lega to block pro-Ukrainian government initiatives outright, since the image he projects does not represent the whole party. At European Parliament level, for instance, all Lega MEPs voted in favour of a resolution supporting Ukraine in the war against Russia on the anniversary of the invasion in February this year. Vannacci voted against, once again reflecting his pro-Russian convictions. Among his many other actions and comments, Vannacci has expressed support for a performance by Russian conductor Valery Gergiev who is known for his support of the Kremlin regime.
To understand the general's position more fully, it is worth emphasising that he is pro-Russian above all at a worldview level. As a sort of conservative military man 'disillusioned with the Western world,' he found his ideal in Russia. Russian propaganda had prepared an image of Russia for him and for many others of the so-called 'right-wing conservative' type: a strong leader who governs with popular support, clean and safe cities, no illegal migrants, respect for traditional values. This is how Russia appears in Vannacci's understanding and accordingly, anyone who opposes or challenges Russia is in the wrong. Vannacci cannot be persuaded otherwise. It is telling, therefore, that Russian media publications characterising the emergence of Futuro Nazionale as 'Moscow's hand in Rome' do so with evident approval.
Conclusion
Futuro Nazionale is less a cause than a symptom of the restructuring of the Italian right. The demand for a 'genuinely' right-wing force that would act as radically as it speaks had taken shape before Vannacci appeared. The general was simply the first to give it political form, combining personal popularity with the niche of right-wing opposition. Fundamentally, the party offers nothing that the ruling right does not already declare. Its main asset is the image of an alternative untainted by power. This is precisely why Futuro Nazionale's rating is rising rapidly despite its organisational weakness and dependence on a single figure. Given the current electoral arithmetic, the centre-right without Vannacci risks failing to form the next government and so the further moves of Futuro Nazionale in the run-up to the parliamentary elections deserve close attention. For Ukraine, the main risk is not the rather loud anti-Ukrainian rhetoric in itself, but the prospect that a man ideologically committed to Moscow could gain a direct lever of influence over Rome's policy in a way that Lega has not. The price of Futuro Nazionale entering the governing coalition will most likely be a revision of Italy's support for Ukraine.
Billy-Villy is an analytical media outlet that explains the mechanics of decisions, the motivations of politicians, hidden interests, and consequences affecting the situation in the world and in Ukraine today.
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